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A small restaurant walk-in handles 1–3 tons/month. A grocery back-room is 10–30. A regional distributor is 200+.
Default is the 2025–26 U.S. wholesale average for the product above. Use your own number for a sharper answer.
Drives the electricity tariff (EIA commercial average by metro) and the summer-ambient refrigeration penalty.
Faster turnover = smaller store, lower capex. Default is 30 days.
Cumulative cash position (loss avoided − opex − capex). Non-discounted; the real NPV is usually better.
Honest caveat: output is a band (±20%), grounded in USDA/FAO postharvest data, ASHRAE Ch. 24, and 2026 EIA electricity prices. Loss-avoided credit only — revenue uplift from premium pricing or new markets is not included and usually accelerates payback further. Site survey + engineer review collapses the band.
Three numbers, defensible each. Loss you are absorbing now: monthly loss ($) = monthly throughput (lb) × (spoilage % without cold chain − spoilage % with cold chain) × selling price ($/lb). Spoilage rates come from USDA/FAO postharvest loss research. Pharmaceutical loss is treated as a step function: chain-intact = ~0.5% loss; chain-break = 100% loss (WHO TRS 961 Annex 9). Capex band: required storage volume = monthly throughput × turnover factor × ft³/ton. Capex/ft³ rate is selected by temperature class — chilled, frozen, blast, CA store, or pharma-validated — using 2026 U.S.-realistic build costs (panels + refrigeration + civil + doors + controls). A ±20% band reflects real-project variation. Payback: monthly operating cost = (electricity: kWh/ft³/year × volume × EIA metro tariff) ÷ 12 + (non-electricity: 5–8% of capex) ÷ 12. Payback months = capex (midpoint) ÷ (monthly loss avoided − monthly opex).
What this calculator deliberately doesn't include: premium pricing from quality preservation, access to new markets requiring cold-chain by buyer mandate, insurance discounts, solar PV self-generation offset, and working-capital release from lower spoilage. Every one of these accelerates payback — the published payback months are a ceiling, not a midpoint.
References: USDA Economic Research Service; FAO Postharvest Loss Compendium 2011; ASHRAE Refrigeration Handbook 2022 Ch. 24; U.S. Energy Information Administration electricity price data 2026; WHO TRS 961 Annex 9.